Freedom to Win: EURO 2020 Economic Predictor

Commentary France is the narrow betting favorite to win the EURO 2020 soccer tournament that kicks-off Friday in Rome. But a nation’s soccer fortune is not written in the odds, but in the stats—the economic stats. On June 9, we released the fifth edition of the Democracy Institute’s econometric soccer predictor, a popular tool among gamblers and investors. DI’s predictive model has a proven track record, enjoying successful runs during EURO 2016, and at the respective 2018, 2014, and 2010 Worlds Cups. During EURO 2016, the model favored small, economically free nations such as Iceland, Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Wales. At the outset, each one was unfancied by bookmakers, expert pundits, and conventional wisdom; yet, on the pitch each one vastly exceeded expectations, with the Welsh making the semi-finals. DI’s EURO 2020 Predictor signals that France, Belgium, Croatia, Italy, and Spain are poised to under-achieve. Look for England, Denmark, Finland, …

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